Gottman John Mordechai, Levenson Robert Wayne
Institute for Personality Research, Department of Psychology, University of California, USA.
Fam Process. 2002 Spring;41(1):83-96. doi: 10.1111/j.1545-5300.2002.40102000083.x.
This article examines 14-year longitudinal data and attempts to create a post hoc model that uses Time-1 data to "predict" the length of time the marriage will last. The sample consists of the 21 couples (of 79 studied) who divorced over a 14-year period. A two-factor model is proposed. One factor is the amount of unregulated volatile positive and negative affect in the marriage, and this factor predicts a short marriage length for the divorcing couples. A second factor is called "neutral affective style," and this factor predicts a long marriage length for the divorcing couples. This model is compared to a Time-1 model of ailing marriage in which Time-1 marital satisfaction is used to predict the timing of divorce.
本文研究了14年的纵向数据，并尝试建立一个事后模型，该模型使用时间1的数据来“预测”婚姻将持续的时长。样本由在14年期间离婚的21对夫妇（共研究了79对夫妇）组成。提出了一个双因素模型。一个因素是婚姻中未加调节的易变的积极和消极情绪的数量，这个因素预测离婚夫妇的婚姻持续时间较短。第二个因素被称为“中性情感风格”，这个因素预测离婚夫妇的婚姻持续时间较长。将这个模型与一个婚姻不佳的时间1模型进行比较，在该模型中，时间1的婚姻满意度被用来预测离婚时间。
