Paton David
Nottingham University Business School, Nottingham University, UK.
J Health Econ. 2002 Mar;21(2):207-25. doi: 10.1016/s0167-6296(01)00115-1.
This paper examines whether improved access to family planning services for under 16 is likely to help in achieving the aim of reducing underage conceptions. A simple model of rational choice is introduced which suggests that family planning increases rates of underage sexual activity and has an ambiguous impact on underage conception and abortion rates. The model is tested on panel data on regions within the UK using two approaches. The first test is whether the 1984 Gillick ruling had a differential impact on two groups: under 16 for whom access to family planning was restricted by the ruling and older teenagers who were not affected. Secondly, attendance by under sixteens at family planning clinics, suitably instrumented, is used as a proxy for access to family planning. With both approaches, no evidence is found that the provision of family planning reduces either underage conception or abortion rates. Socio-economic variables such as children in care rates and participation rates in post-compulsory education are found to be significant predictors of underage pregnancies.
本文探讨了改善16岁以下青少年获得计划生育服务的机会是否有助于实现减少未成年怀孕的目标。引入了一个简单的理性选择模型，该模型表明计划生育会提高未成年人性行为的发生率，并且对未成年怀孕率和堕胎率的影响不明确。使用两种方法对英国各地区的面板数据进行了该模型的测试。第一个测试是1984年吉利克裁决是否对两组人群产生了不同的影响：一组是16岁以下因该裁决而获得计划生育服务受限的青少年，另一组是未受影响的年龄较大的青少年。其次，16岁以下青少年到计划生育诊所就诊（经过适当的工具变量处理）被用作获得计划生育服务的代理指标。通过这两种方法，均未发现有证据表明提供计划生育服务会降低未成年怀孕率或堕胎率。研究发现，诸如受照料儿童比例和义务教育后参与率等社会经济变量是未成年怀孕的重要预测因素。
