On the evolutionary coexistence of parasite strains.

Classical models of parasite competition show that coexistence is impossible if different strains give complete cross-immunity. However, parasite coexistence is possible if some of the model assumptions are changed. For instance, coexistence is impossible if density-dependence operates only in hosts' fertility, but surprisingly becomes possible if hosts' mortality is density-dependent. Parasite strains can also coexist if a host already infected with one strain may become infected by another strain (superinfection). I examine here if these reasons for coexistence carry over to evolutionary timescales: in other words, suppose that potentially a continuum of parasite strains may arise by mutations; will evolution arrive at a halt? in that case, will only one or several strains persist? The paradigm and methods of adaptive dynamics are used in this study. It is found, under reasonably general assumptions, that a unique evolutionarily stable state for virulence, alpha(), exist for both models. However, the pattern of the invasibility plots depends on the shape of the trade-off (between virulence and transmissibility, or superinfection rates) functions, and on the host demography. In many cases, the state alpha() is evolutionarily stable only with respect to small mutations, not to larger ones; hence, evolutionary dynamics will bring virulence to alpha(*) only if mutations are sufficiently small; for larger mutations, evolutionary dynamics are more complex and still mainly unresolved.