Epidemiologic tools for biosecurity and biocontainment.

Quantitative models simplify reality, and therefore may misrepresent it. With that caution, models can be useful for predicting the outcomes of a variety of what-if scenarios related to biosecurity and biocontainment. Graphic representations of the models help to visualize relationships between factors that influence biosecurity that might not be obvious otherwise. The examples in this article illustrate only a few of many epidemiologic relationships relevant to biosecurity and biocontainment. Many other relationships remain to be explored.