Smith David R
Department of Veterinary and Biomedical Sciences, Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68583-0907, USA.
Vet Clin North Am Food Anim Pract. 2002 Mar;18(1):157-75. doi: 10.1016/s0749-0720(02)00006-3.
Quantitative models simplify reality, and therefore may misrepresent it. With that caution, models can be useful for predicting the outcomes of a variety of what-if scenarios related to biosecurity and biocontainment. Graphic representations of the models help to visualize relationships between factors that influence biosecurity that might not be obvious otherwise. The examples in this article illustrate only a few of many epidemiologic relationships relevant to biosecurity and biocontainment. Many other relationships remain to be explored.
定量模型简化了现实，因此可能会对其进行错误描述。尽管如此，模型对于预测与生物安全和生物遏制相关的各种假设情景的结果可能是有用的。模型的图形表示有助于直观呈现影响生物安全的因素之间的关系，否则这些关系可能并不明显。本文中的示例仅说明了与生物安全和生物遏制相关的众多流行病学关系中的少数几种。许多其他关系仍有待探索。
