Cleaveland Sarah, Fèvre Eric M, Kaare Magai, Coleman Paul G
Centre for Tropical Veterinary Medicine, Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, University of Edinburgh, Roslin, Midlothian, United Kingdom.
Bull World Health Organ. 2002;80(4):304-10.
To make quantitative predictions about the magnitude of underreporting of human rabies deaths in the United Republic of Tanzania.
Human rabies deaths were estimated by using a series of probability steps to calculate the likelihood of rabies developing after the bite of a suspected rabid dog, incorporating field data on the incidence of animal bite injuries, the accuracy of rabies recognition, the distribution of bite wounds, and post-exposure treatment.
Predicted human rabies mortality was estimated to be (a) 1499 deaths per year (95% confidence interval 891-2238), equivalent to an annual incidence of 4.9 (2.9-7.2) deaths/100,000, when active surveillance data on bite incidence were used, and (b) 193 deaths per year (32-409), corresponding to an annual incidence of 0.62 (0.1-1.32) deaths/100,000, when national bite statistics were used. The annual mean number of rabies deaths officially recorded for the same period was 10.8 (7.7-14.0).
In the United Republic of Tanzania, cases of rabies in humans have been greatly underreported. Dog bite injuries are an accessible source of epidemiological data that may be used to estimate the public health burden of rabies and to monitor epidemiological trends in developing countries.
对坦桑尼亚联合共和国人类狂犬病死亡报告不足的程度进行定量预测。
通过一系列概率步骤来估计人类狂犬病死亡人数，计算疑似狂犬病犬咬伤后狂犬病发病的可能性，纳入动物咬伤伤害发生率、狂犬病识别准确性、咬伤伤口分布及暴露后治疗的现场数据。
预测的人类狂犬病死亡率估计为：（a）使用咬伤发生率的主动监测数据时，每年1499例死亡（95%置信区间891 - 2238），相当于年发病率4.9（2.9 - 7.2）/10万；（b）使用全国咬伤统计数据时，每年193例死亡（32 - 409），对应年发病率0.62（0.1 - 1.32）/10万。同期官方记录的狂犬病死亡年均数为10.8（7.7 - 14.0）。
在坦桑尼亚联合共和国，人类狂犬病病例报告严重不足。犬咬伤伤害是可获取的流行病学数据来源，可用于估计狂犬病的公共卫生负担并监测发展中国家的流行病学趋势。
