Bradley Michael J, Jones Brian M
M. J. Bradley & Associates, Inc. 47 Junction Square Drive, Concord, MA 01742, USA.
Ambio. 2002 Mar;31(2):141-9.
Globally, energy demand is projected to continue to increase well into the future. As a result, global NOx emissions are projected to continue on an upward trend for the foreseeable future as developing countries increase their standards of living. While the US has experienced improvements in reducing NOx emissions from stationary and mobile sources to reduce ozone, further progress is needed to reduce the health and ecosystem impacts associated with NOx emissions. In other parts of the world, (in developing countries in particular) NOx emissions have been increasing steadily with the growth in demand for electricity and transportation. Advancements in energy and transportation technologies may help avoid this increase in emissions if appropriate policies are implemented. This paper evaluates commercially available power generation and transportation technologies that produce fewer NOx emissions than conventional technologies, and advanced technologies that are on the 10-year commercialization horizon. Various policy approaches will be evaluated which can be implemented on the regional, national and international levels to promote these advanced technologies and ultimately reduce NOx emissions. The concept of the technology leap is offered as a possibility for the developing world to avoid the projected increases in NOx emissions.
在全球范围内,预计能源需求在未来很长一段时间内将持续增长。因此,随着发展中国家生活水平的提高,预计在可预见的未来全球氮氧化物排放量将继续呈上升趋势。虽然美国在减少固定源和移动源氮氧化物排放以降低臭氧方面已取得进展,但仍需进一步努力,以减少与氮氧化物排放相关的对健康和生态系统的影响。在世界其他地区,尤其是发展中国家,随着电力和交通需求的增长,氮氧化物排放量一直在稳步增加。如果实施适当的政策,能源和交通技术的进步可能有助于避免排放量的增加。本文评估了与传统技术相比产生较少氮氧化物排放的商用发电和交通技术,以及处于10年商业化阶段的先进技术。将评估各种政策方法,这些方法可在区域、国家和国际层面实施,以推广这些先进技术并最终减少氮氧化物排放。技术跨越的概念为发展中世界避免预计的氮氧化物排放量增加提供了一种可能性。