Goeree Ron, O'Brien Bernie J, Blackhouse Gordon, Marshall John, Briggs Andrew, Lad Rameeta
Department of Clinical Epidemiology & Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario L8N 1G6, Canada.
Value Health. 2002 Jul-Aug;5(4):312-28. doi: 10.1046/j.1524-4733.2002.54145.x.
To compare the expected costs and outcomes of seven alternative long-term primary care strategies for the management of patients with moderate-to-severe heartburn over a 1-year period.
A decision-analytic model was developed to estimate costs and effects (weeks with heartburn symptoms and quality adjusted life years [QALYs]) for each strategy. Meta-analyses were used to synthesize acute treatment and maintenance studies and physician surveys to collect information on patient management. The impact of uncertainty on the base case results was assessed using probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Probability distributions were defined for key model parameters and techniques of Monte Carlo simulation were used to draw values from these distributions. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) conditional on the monetary value decision makers are willing to pay for a symptom-free day or QALY were created for each strategy.
In the base case, no strategy was strictly dominated by any other strategy. However, two strategies (maintenance H2-receptor antagonists H2RA] and step-down proton pump inhibitor PPI]) were dominated through principles of extended dominance. The least costly and least effective strategy was intermittent H2RA, while maintenance PPI was the most costly and most effective.
This analysis showed that the best way of managing patients with heartburn depends on how much society is willing to pay to achieve health improvements. Based on the commonly quoted threshold of US 50,000 dollars per QALY, the optimal primary care strategy for managing patients with moderate-to-severe heartburn symptoms is to treat the symptoms with a PPI followed by maintenance therapy with an H2RA to prevent symptomatic recurrence.
比较七种替代长期初级保健策略在1年时间内管理中重度烧心患者的预期成本和结果。
建立了一个决策分析模型,以估计每种策略的成本和效果(烧心症状持续周数和质量调整生命年[QALYs])。荟萃分析用于综合急性治疗和维持治疗研究,医生调查用于收集患者管理信息。使用概率敏感性分析评估不确定性对基础病例结果的影响。为关键模型参数定义概率分布,并使用蒙特卡罗模拟技术从这些分布中抽取值。为每种策略创建了基于决策者愿意为无症状天数或QALY支付的货币价值的成本效益可接受性曲线(CEACs)。
在基础病例中,没有一种策略被其他任何策略严格占优。然而,通过扩展占优原则,两种策略(维持使用H2受体拮抗剂[H2RA]和逐步递减使用质子泵抑制剂[PPI])被占优。成本最低且效果最差的策略是间歇性使用H2RA,而维持使用PPI是成本最高且效果最好的。
该分析表明,管理烧心患者的最佳方法取决于社会愿意为实现健康改善支付多少费用。基于每QALY通常引用的50000美元阈值,管理中重度烧心症状患者的最佳初级保健策略是先用PPI治疗症状,然后用H2RA进行维持治疗以预防症状复发。