Mould R F, Boag J W
Br J Cancer. 1975 Nov;32(5):529-50. doi: 10.1038/bjc.1975.259.
The parametric statistical models discussed include all those which have previously been described in the literature (Boag, 1948-lognormal; Berkson and Gage, 1952-negative exponential; Haybittle, 1959-extrapolated actuarial) and the basic data used to test the models comprised some 3000 case histories of patients treated between 1945 and 1962. The histories were followed up during the period treated between 1945 and 1962. The histories were followed up during the period 1969-71 and thus provided adequate information to validate long-term survival fractions predicted using short-term follow-up data. The results with the log-normal model showed that for series of staged carcinoma cervix patients treated during a 5-year period, satisfactory estimates of long-term survival fractions could be predicted after a minimum waiting period of 3 years for stages I and II, and 2 years for stage III. The model should be used with a value assumed for the lognormal paramater S in the range S = 0.35 to S = 0.40. Although alternative models often gave adequate predictions, the lognormal proved to be the most consistent model. This model may therefore now be used with more confidence for prospective studies on carcinoma cervix series and can provide good estimates of long-term survival fractions several years earlier than would otherwise be possible.
所讨论的参数统计模型包括文献中先前描述过的所有模型（博阿格，1948年——对数正态分布；伯克森和盖奇，1952年——负指数分布；海比特尔，1959年——外推精算模型），用于检验这些模型的基础数据包括1945年至1962年间接受治疗的约3000例患者的病历。这些病历在1945年至1962年的治疗期间进行了随访。在1969年至1971年期间对这些病历进行了随访，从而提供了足够的信息来验证使用短期随访数据预测的长期生存概率。对数正态模型的结果表明，对于在5年期间接受治疗的分期宫颈癌患者系列，对于I期和II期患者，最短等待3年后，对于III期患者，最短等待2年后，可以预测出令人满意的长期生存概率估计值。该模型应使用对数正态参数S在S = 0.35至S = 0.40范围内的假设值。虽然其他模型通常也能给出足够的预测，但对数正态模型被证明是最一致的模型。因此，现在可以更有信心地将该模型用于宫颈癌系列的前瞻性研究，并且可以比其他方法提前数年提供良好的长期生存概率估计。
