美国死亡率性别差异的建模与预测
Modeling and forecasting U.S. sex differentials in mortality.
作者信息
Carter L R, Lee R D
出版信息
Int J Forecast. 1992 Nov;8(3):393-411. doi: 10.1016/0169-2070(92)90055-e.
PMID:12157866
Abstract
"This paper examines differentials in observed and forecasted sex-specific life expectancies and longevity in the United States from 1900 to 2065. Mortality models are developed and used to generate long-run forecasts, with confidence intervals that extend recent work by Lee and Carter (1992). These results are compared for forecast accuracy with univariate naive forecasts of life expectancies and those prepared by the Actuary of the Social Security Administration."
摘要
本文研究了1900年至2065年美国观察到的和预测的按性别划分的预期寿命及长寿差异。开发了死亡率模型并用于生成长期预测，其置信区间扩展了Lee和Carter（1992）的近期研究成果。将这些结果的预测准确性与预期寿命的单变量朴素预测以及社会保障管理局精算师所做的预测进行了比较。
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