论学术团体的年龄动态——以奥地利科学院为例
On the age dynamics of learned societies-taking the example of the Austrian Academy of Sciences.
作者信息
Feichtinger Gustav, Winkler-Dworak Maria, Freund Inga, Prskawetz Alexia, Riosmena Fernando
机构信息
Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria and Institute of Mathematical Methods in Economics, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria.
出版信息
Vienna Yearb Popul Res. 2007;2007:107-131. doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2007s107.
In a hierarchical organisation of stable size the annual intake is strictly determined by the number of deaths and a statutory retirement age (if there is one). In this paper we reconstruct the population of the Austrian Academy of Sciences from 1847 to 2005. For the Austrian Academy of Sciences we observe a shift of its age distribution towards older ages, which on the one hand is due to rising life expectancy, i.e., a rising age at death, as well as to an increased age at entry on the other hand. Therefore the number of new entrants has been fluctuating considerably-especially reflecting several statutory changes-and the length of tenure before reaching the age limit has declined during the second half of the last century.Based on alternative scenarios of the age distribution of incoming members-including a young, an old, the 'current' and a mixed-age model-we then project the population of the Austrian Academy and its ageing forward in time. Our results indicate that the 'optimum policy' would be to elect either young or old aged new members.
在一个规模稳定的层级组织中，年度吸纳人数严格由死亡人数和法定退休年龄（如果有）决定。在本文中，我们重构了1847年至2005年奥地利科学院的人员构成情况。对于奥地利科学院，我们观察到其年龄分布向更高龄转变，一方面这是由于预期寿命上升，即死亡年龄上升，另一方面是由于入职年龄增加。因此，新入职人员数量波动很大——尤其反映了几项法定变化——并且在上个世纪后半叶，达到年龄限制前的任期长度有所下降。基于新成员年龄分布的替代情景——包括年轻型、老年型、“当前型”和混合年龄模型——我们随后对奥地利科学院的人员构成及其老龄化情况进行了时间上的预测。我们的结果表明，“最优政策”将是选举年轻或年长的新成员。
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