Population Research Centre, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands,
Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, KNAW/University of Groningen, The Hague, The Netherlands,
Obes Facts. 2020;13(5):514-527. doi: 10.1159/000511023. Epub 2020 Oct 19.
Obesity constitutes a major public health problem in Europe, but how the obesity epidemic in European countries will evolve remains unknown. Most previous obesity projections considered the short-term future only, focused on single non-European countries, and projected ongoing increases foremost. We comparatively project obesity prevalence into the long-term future for 18 European countries and the USA.
We used national age-specific (20-84 years) and sex-specific obesity prevalence estimates (1975-2016) from the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC) 2017 study, which are based on available measured height and weight data, supplemented with estimates from a Bayesian hierarchical model.
We projected age- and sex-specific obesity prevalence up to the year 2100 by integrating the notion of a wave-shaped obesity epidemic into conventional age-period projections.
In 1990-2016, the increasing trends in obesity prevalence were decelerating. Obesity is expected to reach maximum levels between 2030 and 2052 among men, and between 2026 and 2054 among women. The maximum levels will likely be reached first in The Netherlands, USA, and UK, and last in Switzerland; and are expected to be highest in the USA and UK, and lowest in The Netherlands for men and Denmark for women. In 2060, obesity prevalence is expected to be lowest among Dutch men and highest among Swiss men. The projected age-specific obesity prevalence levels have an inverse U-shape, peaking at around the age of 60-69 years.
Applying our novel approach to the NCD-RisC 2017 data, obesity prevalence is expected to reach maximum levels between 2026 and 2054, with the USA and UK reaching the highest maximum levels first, followed by other European countries.
肥胖是欧洲面临的一个主要公共卫生问题，但欧洲各国的肥胖流行趋势将如何演变仍不得而知。大多数先前的肥胖预测仅考虑短期未来，聚焦于单一的非欧洲国家，并预测肥胖率将持续上升。我们对 18 个欧洲国家和美国的肥胖流行率进行了长期预测。
我们使用了 NCD 风险因素合作组织（NCD-RisC）2017 年研究中基于可获得的身高和体重数据的、针对 20-84 岁人群的国家特异性和性别特异性肥胖流行率估计数据（1975-2016 年），并辅以贝叶斯层次模型的估计数据。
我们通过将肥胖流行的波浪形概念纳入传统的年龄-时期预测，将年龄和性别特异性肥胖流行率预测到 2100 年。
在 1990-2016 年期间，肥胖流行率的上升趋势有所减缓。男性肥胖率预计将在 2030 年至 2052 年之间达到最高水平，女性则在 2026 年至 2054 年之间达到最高水平。这些最高水平可能首先在荷兰、美国和英国达到，最后在瑞士达到；男性肥胖率预计在荷兰最低，在英国和美国最高，而女性肥胖率在丹麦最低。到 2060 年，荷兰男性的肥胖流行率预计将处于最低水平，而瑞士男性的肥胖流行率预计将处于最高水平。预测的年龄特异性肥胖流行率呈倒 U 形，在 60-69 岁左右达到峰值。
我们将新方法应用于 NCD-RisC 2017 年的数据，预计肥胖流行率将在 2026 年至 2054 年期间达到最高水平，美国和英国将首先达到最高水平，然后是其他欧洲国家。
