Nobel Carolyn E, McDonald-Buller Elena C, Kimura Yosuke, Lumbley Katherine E, Allen David T
Center for Energy and Environmental Resources, The University of Texas at Austin, 78758, USA.
Environ Sci Technol. 2002 Aug 15;36(16):3465-73. doi: 10.1021/es0110168.
Ozone formation is a complex function of local hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxide emissions. Therefore, trading of NOx emissions among geographically distributed facilities can lead to more or less ozone formation than across-the-board reductions. Monte Carlo simulations of trading scenarios involving 51 large NOx point sources in eastern Texas were used in a previous study by the authors to assess the effects of trading on air quality benefits, as measured by changes in ozone concentrations. The results indicated that 12% of trading scenarios would lead to greater than a 25% variation from conventional across-the-board reductions when air quality benefits are based only on changes in ozone concentration. The current study found that when benefits are based on a metric related to population exposure to ozone, two-thirds of the trading scenarios lead to changes in air quality benefits of approximately 25%. Variability in air quality benefits is not as strongly dependent on the temporal distribution of NOx emissions.
臭氧形成是当地碳氢化合物和氮氧化物排放的复杂函数。因此，地理分布的设施之间进行氮氧化物排放交易，与全面减排相比，可能导致或多或少的臭氧形成。作者之前的一项研究使用涉及得克萨斯州东部51个大型氮氧化物点源的交易情景的蒙特卡罗模拟，来评估交易对空气质量效益的影响，以臭氧浓度变化衡量。结果表明，当空气质量效益仅基于臭氧浓度变化时，12%的交易情景将导致与传统全面减排相比有超过25%的变化。当前研究发现，当效益基于与人群接触臭氧相关的指标时，三分之二的交易情景会导致空气质量效益变化约25%。空气质量效益的变异性对氮氧化物排放的时间分布的依赖性没那么强。
