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Business cycles and fertility dynamics in the United States: a vector autoregressive model.

作者信息

Mocan N H

出版信息

J Popul Econ. 1990;3(2):125-46. doi: 10.1007/BF00187288.

DOI:10.1007/BF00187288
PMID:12283296
Abstract

"Using vector-autoregressions...this paper shows that fertility moves countercyclically over the business cycle....[It] shows that the United States fertility is not governed by a deterministic trend as was assumed by previous studies. Rather, fertility evolves around a stochastic trend. It is shown that a bivariate analysis between fertility and unemployment yields a procyclical picture of fertility. However, when one considers the effects on fertility of early marriages and the divorce behavior as well as economic activity, fertility moves countercyclically."

摘要

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