Trandafir Mircea
Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, DK-5230, Odense M, Denmark,
Demography. 2015 Feb;52(1):113-51. doi: 10.1007/s13524-014-0361-2.
It has long been debated how legalizing same-sex marriage would affect (different-sex) family formation. In this article, I use data on OECD member countries for the period 1980-2009 to examine the effects of the legal recognition of same-sex couples (through marriage or an alternative institution) on different-sex marriage, divorce, and extramarital births. Estimates from difference-in-difference models indicate that the introduction of same-sex marriage or of alternative institutions has no negative effects on family formation. These findings are robust to a multitude of specification checks, including the construction of counterfactuals using the synthetic control method. In addition, the country-by-country case studies provide evidence of homogeneity of the estimated effects.
长期以来，同性婚姻合法化将如何影响（异性）家庭组建一直存在争议。在本文中，我使用经合组织成员国1980 - 2009年期间的数据，研究同性伴侣法律认可（通过婚姻或其他制度）对异性婚姻、离婚和非婚生育的影响。双重差分模型的估计表明，同性婚姻或其他制度的引入对家庭组建没有负面影响。这些结果在大量的规格检验中都很稳健，包括使用合成控制法构建反事实。此外，逐个国家的案例研究提供了估计效应同质性的证据。
