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复杂社会地理网络上HIV传播的分形模型。第2部分:从聚居的“核心群体”传播至“普通人群”。

A fractal model of HIV transmission on complex socio-geographic networks. Part 2: spread from a ghettoized 'core group' into a 'general population'.

作者信息

Wallace R

出版信息

Environ Plan A. 1994;26(5):767-78. doi: 10.1068/a260767.

DOI:10.1068/a260767
PMID:12287595
Abstract

"Study of the initial stages of HIV transmission along a 'sociogeographic network'--a large, complex, spatially focused social network with possibly fractal geometry--is extended to include interaction between a low-dimensional ghettoized 'core group' within which the disease spreads very rapidly and a higher dimensional, more loosely structured 'general population' in which spread is relatively slow. A mathematical modeling exercise suggests that contextually modulated interaction between them can be highly nonlinear and may greatly increase the initial rate of disease transmission within the general population. This work contributes to a growing body of literature which suggests that programs to control HIV infection within the majority heterosexual population of the United States will fail spectacularly without particular focus on the coupled physical and social stabilization and rehabilitation of the urban ghettoes of marginalized populations which are the present, and rapidly expanding, disease epicenters. Evidence suggests their continued disintegration can both increase disease rates within the epicenters and increase the coupling between core groups and general populations by creating large numbers of spatially or economically displaced refugees."

摘要

对沿着“社会地理网络”(一个规模庞大、复杂、空间集中且可能具有分形几何结构的社会网络)的HIV传播初始阶段的研究得以扩展,将疾病传播非常迅速的低维贫民窟化“核心群体”与传播相对缓慢的高维、结构较为松散的“普通人群”之间的相互作用纳入其中。一项数学建模研究表明,它们之间受情境调制的相互作用可能高度非线性,并且可能极大地提高普通人群中疾病传播的初始速率。这项工作为越来越多的文献做出了贡献,这些文献表明,在美国大多数异性恋人群中控制HIV感染的项目如果不特别关注边缘化人群城市贫民窟的物质和社会稳定及恢复,将会惨败,而这些贫民窟正是当前且迅速扩大的疾病中心。有证据表明,这些地区的持续瓦解既会增加疾病中心内的发病率,又会通过产生大量空间或经济上流离失所的难民来增强核心群体与普通人群之间的联系。

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