Croes M M
Maandstat Bevolking. 1995 Jun;43(6):6-16.
"The Dutch policy regarding asylum seekers requires a stay of a few months in special centres where they have to remain pending the result of the asylum request.... Taking into account that the huge inflow of asylum seekers in the special centres in 1994 (more than 45 thousand) will also have an impact on the number of immigrants in 1995, the number of immigrants who requested asylum can be estimated. In this article a simple method of short-term prediction is presented. Assuming that the outflow of asylum seekers to municipalities in 1995 will show the same pattern as in 1994 and that the total inflow of asylum seekers in the special centres will not surpass 30 thousand, a total of about 19 thousand asylum seekers will become immigrants in 1995." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
荷兰针对寻求庇护者的政策要求他们在特别中心停留数月，在此期间，他们必须等待庇护申请的结果……考虑到1994年特别中心涌入了大量寻求庇护者（超过4.5万），这也将对1995年的移民数量产生影响，因此可以估算出申请庇护的移民数量。本文介绍了一种简单的短期预测方法。假设1995年寻求庇护者向各市镇的流出情况与1994年相同，且特别中心寻求庇护者的总流入量不超过3万，那么1995年总计约1.9万寻求庇护者将成为移民。 （英文摘要）
