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未来人口与未来劳动力。

The future population and the future labour force.

作者信息

Young C

出版信息

People Place. 1994;2(4):15-21.

Abstract

"The combination of two recent publications by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides a useful insight into feasible future trends in the population, the labour force and dependency ratios. In addition, earlier ABS census data and its regular publications from the Labour Force Surveys clarify the historical trends in the relative number of dependants and nondependants. These various sources of data are brought together in this paper.... Official population projections...highlight the fact that the combination of annual zero net migration and 10 per cent below replacement fertility would not produce an immediate decline in Australia's population.... The conventional labour-force dependency ratio suggests that the dependency situation in Australia in 2041 will be no worse than it was in the early 1980s."

摘要

澳大利亚统计局(ABS)最近发表的两份出版物相结合,有助于深入了解人口、劳动力和抚养比未来可能出现的趋势。此外,澳大利亚统计局早期的人口普查数据及其劳动力调查定期出版物阐明了受抚养者和非受抚养者相对数量的历史趋势。本文综合了这些不同的数据来源……官方人口预测……突出了这样一个事实,即每年净移民为零且生育率低于更替水平10%的情况并不会使澳大利亚人口立即下降……传统的劳动力抚养比表明,2041年澳大利亚的抚养状况不会比20世纪80年代初更糟。

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