Sanderson W C
Math Popul Stud. 1995 Jul;5(3):259-79, 292. doi: 10.1080/08898489509525405.
"More and more population forecasts are being produced with associated 95 percent confidence intervals. How confident are we of those confidence intervals? In this paper, we produce a simulated dataset in which we know both past and future population sizes, and the true 95 percent confidence intervals at various future dates. We use the past data to produce population forecasts and estimated 95 percent confidence intervals using various functional forms. We, then, compare the true 95 percent confidence intervals with the estimated ones. This comparison shows that we are not at all confident of the estimated 95 percent confidence intervals." (SUMMARY IN FRE)
越来越多的人口预测都带有相关的95%置信区间。我们对这些置信区间有多大信心呢？在本文中，我们生成了一个模拟数据集，在其中我们既知道过去和未来的人口规模，也知道不同未来日期的真实95%置信区间。我们使用过去的数据，通过各种函数形式来进行人口预测并估计95%置信区间。然后，我们将真实的95%置信区间与估计出的置信区间进行比较。这种比较表明，我们对估计出的95%置信区间根本没有信心。（法语摘要）
