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初婚平均年龄的估计:一个简单数学模型的应用

Estimation of mean age at first marriage: use of a simple mathematical model.

作者信息

Islam M N

出版信息

Rural Demogr. 1984;11(1-2):39-59.

Abstract

"The present paper is an attempt to introduce a simple mathematical model to describe the age pattern of proportion never married women. The underlying model was found to give fairly close fit to an observed set of data of some 17 WFS [World Fertility Survey] countries. A mathematical formulation was then suggested in terms of the parameters in the model to estimate the mean age at first marriage. The mean ages obtained under the approach agreed quite closely with those obtained by Hajnal's method. The agreement between the estimates of ever married proportions obtained by the suggested model and...Coale's nuptiality model appeared also to be satisfactory."

摘要

本文试图引入一个简单的数学模型来描述从未结婚女性比例的年龄模式。结果发现,该基础模型与约17个世界生育调查(WFS)国家的一组观测数据拟合得相当紧密。然后根据模型中的参数提出了一种数学公式,以估计初婚平均年龄。通过该方法获得的平均年龄与通过哈吉纳尔方法获得的平均年龄相当接近。所提出的模型与……科尔婚姻模型所得出的已婚比例估计值之间的一致性似乎也令人满意。

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