Menon Surabi, Hansen James, Nazarenko Larissa, Luo Yunfeng
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA.
Science. 2002 Sep 27;297(5590):2250-3. doi: 10.1126/science.1075159.
In recent decades, there has been a tendency toward increased summer floods in south China, increased drought in north China, and moderate cooling in China and India while most of the world has been warming. We used a global climate model to investigate possible aerosol contributions to these trends. We found precipitation and temperature changes in the model that were comparable to those observed if the aerosols included a large proportion of absorbing black carbon ("soot"), similar to observed amounts. Absorbing aerosols heat the air, alter regional atmospheric stability and vertical motions, and affect the large-scale circulation and hydrologic cycle with significant regional climate effects.
近几十年来,中国南方夏季洪水有增加趋势,中国北方干旱加剧,中国和印度出现适度降温,而世界其他大部分地区一直在变暖。我们使用全球气候模型来研究气溶胶对这些趋势可能产生的影响。我们发现,如果气溶胶中含有很大比例的吸收性黑碳(“煤烟”),与观测到的数量相似,那么模型中的降水和温度变化与观测结果相当。吸收性气溶胶使空气升温,改变区域大气稳定性和垂直运动,并影响大尺度环流和水文循环,从而产生显著的区域气候效应。