Andreae Meinrat O, Jones Chris D, Cox Peter M
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, PO Box 3060, Mainz 55131, Germany.
Nature. 2005 Jun 30;435(7046):1187-90. doi: 10.1038/nature03671.
Atmospheric aerosols counteract the warming effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases by an uncertain, but potentially large, amount. This in turn leads to large uncertainties in the sensitivity of climate to human perturbations, and therefore also in carbon cycle feedbacks and projections of climate change. In the future, aerosol cooling is expected to decline relative to greenhouse gas forcing, because of the aerosols' much shorter lifetime and the pursuit of a cleaner atmosphere. Strong aerosol cooling in the past and present would then imply that future global warming may proceed at or even above the upper extreme of the range projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
大气气溶胶抵消人为温室气体的变暖效应，抵消量虽不确定，但可能很大。这进而导致气候对人类扰动的敏感性存在很大的不确定性，因此在碳循环反馈和气候变化预测方面也存在不确定性。未来，由于气溶胶的寿命短得多以及对更清洁大气的追求，预计气溶胶冷却相对于温室气体强迫作用会下降。过去和现在的强气溶胶冷却意味着未来全球变暖可能以政府间气候变化专门委员会预测范围的上限或甚至高于该上限的速度进行。
