Geng Yu-Fan, Xie Shang-Ping, Zheng Xiao-Tong, Wang Hai, Kang Sarah M, Lin Xiaopei, Wu Lixin, Song Fengfei
Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China.
Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
Sci Adv. 2025 Sep 12;11(37):eadv5013. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adv5013. Epub 2025 Sep 10.
Anthropogenic aerosols are an important driver of historical climate change but the climate response is not fully understood and the climate model simulations suffer large uncertainties. On the basis of a multimodel ensemble of historical aerosol forcing simulation for a period of global aerosol increase during 1965 to 1989, here, we show that the precipitation response shares a common southward displacement of tropical rain bands but the magnitude differs markedly among models, accounting for 76% of the intermodel uncertainty in zonal-mean precipitation change. Our analysis of atmospheric energetics further reveals key mechanisms for magnitude uncertainty: aerosol radiative forcing drives, cloud radiative feedback amplifies, and ocean circulation damps the intermodel uncertainty in cross-equatorial atmospheric energy transport change and the meridional shift of tropical rain bands. This has important implications for understanding and reducing intermodel uncertainty in anthropogenic climate change.
人为气溶胶是历史气候变化的一个重要驱动因素，但气候响应尚未得到充分理解，气候模型模拟存在很大的不确定性。基于1965年至1989年全球气溶胶增加期间历史气溶胶强迫模拟的多模型集合，在此我们表明，降水响应呈现热带雨带共同向南位移的特征，但不同模型之间的幅度差异显著，占纬向平均降水变化模型间不确定性的76%。我们对大气能量学的分析进一步揭示了幅度不确定性的关键机制：气溶胶辐射强迫驱动、云辐射反馈放大，以及海洋环流抑制了跨赤道大气能量传输变化和热带雨带经向位移的模型间不确定性。这对于理解和减少人为气候变化中的模型间不确定性具有重要意义。
