Modeling explicitly and mechanistically median lethal concentration as a function of time for risk assessment.

A mechanistic model that explains how toxic effects depend on the duration of exposure has been developed. Derived from the dynamic energy budget (DEB)tox model, it expresses the hazard rate as a function of the toxic concentration in the organism. Using linear approximations in accordance with the general simplifications made in DEBtox, the concentration that induces x% of lethality (LCx) and in particular the lethal concentration 50% (LC50) are expressed explicitly as functions of time. Only three parameters are required: an asymptotic effect concentration, a time constant, and an effect velocity. More sophisticated (but still analytic) models are possible, describing more complex toxicity patterns such as an increase of sensitivity with time or, conversely, an adaptation. These models can be fitted to the common and widespread LC50 endpoints available from the literature for various aquatic species and chemicals. The interpretation of the values assigned to the parameters will help explain the toxicity processes and standardize toxicity values from different sources for comparisons.