Döös Bo R
Ambio. 2002 Aug;31(5):417-24. doi: 10.1579/0044-7447-31.5.417.
This paper examines the problem of the development of models capable of predicting the capacity of the global food production system. In particular, it identifies the various factors influencing the food production, and estimates their relative influence and predictability. The paper discusses also the problems connected with coupling of models representing the "driving" forces, the Earth system consisting of the atmosphere, the ocean and land surface, and food production. The overall conclusions drawn are: i) The time is not yet ripe for designing a comprehensive coupled model for predicting the global food production that takes into account all the factors having a significant influence; ii) the main difficulties are the modelling of the driving forces, e.g. socioeconomic and political factors, and iii) despite these problems, it is judged that results obtained with existing models are capable of providing concrete information for implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures.
本文探讨了开发能够预测全球粮食生产系统产能的模型这一问题。具体而言，它确定了影响粮食生产的各种因素，并估计了它们的相对影响和可预测性。本文还讨论了与代表“驱动”力的模型、由大气、海洋和陆地表面组成的地球系统以及粮食生产的模型耦合相关的问题。得出的总体结论是：i）设计一个综合耦合模型来预测全球粮食生产，同时考虑所有具有重大影响的因素，时机尚不成熟；ii）主要困难在于驱动力的建模，例如社会经济和政治因素；iii）尽管存在这些问题，但据判断，现有模型所获得的结果能够为实施适应和缓解措施提供具体信息。
