Center for Social & Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies , 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan.
Environ Sci Technol. 2014;48(1):438-45. doi: 10.1021/es4034149. Epub 2013 Dec 11.
We assessed the impacts of climate change and agricultural autonomous adaptation measures (changes in crop variety and planting dates) on food consumption and risk of hunger considering uncertainties in socioeconomic and climate conditions by using a new scenario framework. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and estimated the impacts through 2050 based on future assumptions of socioeconomic and climate conditions. We used three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways as future population and gross domestic products, four Representative Concentration Pathways as a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and eight General Circulation Models to estimate climate conditions. We found that (i) the adaptation measures are expected to significantly lower the risk of hunger resulting from climate change under various socioeconomic and climate conditions. (ii) population and economic development had a greater impact than climate conditions for risk of hunger at least throughout 2050, but climate change was projected to have notable impacts, even in the strong emission mitigation scenarios. (iii) The impact on hunger risk varied across regions because levels of calorie intake, climate change impacts and land scarcity varied by region.
我们评估了气候变化和农业自主适应措施(作物品种和种植期的变化)对粮食消费和饥饿风险的影响,考虑了社会经济和气候条件的不确定性,使用了一种新的情景框架。我们结合了一个全球可计算一般均衡模型和一个作物模型(M-GAEZ),并根据未来社会经济和气候条件的假设,预测了到 2050 年的影响。我们使用了三种共享社会经济途径作为未来的人口和国内生产总值,四种代表性浓度途径作为温室气体排放的限制,以及八种环流模型来估计气候条件。我们发现:(i)适应措施预计将在各种社会经济和气候条件下显著降低气候变化导致的饥饿风险。(ii)人口和经济发展对饥饿风险的影响大于气候条件,至少在 2050 年之前是这样,但预计气候变化即使在减排力度较强的情景下也会产生显著影响。(iii)由于各地区的卡路里摄入量、气候变化影响和土地稀缺程度不同,饥饿风险的影响在各地区有所不同。
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