Edelstein Burton L
Dentistry and Public Health, Division of Community Health, Columbia University School of Dental and Oral Surgery, USA.
J Am Coll Dent. 2002 Summer;69(3):39-43.
Prognostication requires extrapolation of existing conditions and trends into the future. Alternative perspectives and starting points will suggest alternative futures. Since dentistry does not exist independently of the larger health care environment, it is useful to start by considering external forces that impact the overall health care system in order to anticipate both short-term and long-term changes in the dental profession. This contribution to the Future of the Dental Profession symposium considers dentistry's role within the larger health care environment, examines a variety of forces influencing health care--specifically demography, equity, population health, and social determinants of health, identifies likely demands on the profession, and iterates nine likely changes in the profession.
预后评估需要将现有状况和趋势外推至未来。不同的观点和出发点会指向不同的未来。由于牙科并非独立于更广泛的医疗保健环境而存在，因此首先考虑影响整个医疗保健系统的外部因素，对于预测牙科行业的短期和长期变化很有帮助。这篇为“牙科行业的未来”研讨会撰写的文章探讨了牙科在更广泛的医疗保健环境中的作用，审视了影响医疗保健的各种因素——特别是人口统计学、公平性、人群健康以及健康的社会决定因素，确定了该行业可能面临的需求，并阐述了该行业可能出现的九种变化。
