Hattori Masasi
College of Letters, Ritsumeikan University, Kyoto, Japan.
Q J Exp Psychol A. 2002 Oct;55(4):1241-72. doi: 10.1080/02724980244000053.
The optimal data selection model proposed by Oaksford and Chater (1994) successfully formalized Wason's selection task (Wason, 1966). The model, however, involved some questionable assumptions and was also not sufficient as a model of the task because it could not provide quantitative predictions of the card selection frequencies. In this paper, the model was revised to provide quantitative fits to the data. The model can predict the selection frequencies of cards based on a selection tendency function (STF), or conversely, it enables the estimation of subjective probabilities from data. Past experimental data were first re-analysed based on the model. In Experiment 1, the superiority of the revised model was shown. However, when the relationship between antecedent and consequent was forced to deviate from the biconditional form, the model was not supported. In Experiment 2, it was shown that sufficient emphasis on probabilistic information can affect participants' performance. A detailed experimental method to sort participants by probabilistic strategies was introduced. Here, the model was supported by a subgroup of participants who used the probabilistic strategy. Finally, the results were discussed from the viewpoint of adaptive rationality.
奥克斯福德和查特（1994）提出的最优数据选择模型成功地将沃森的选择任务（沃森，1966）形式化。然而，该模型涉及一些有问题的假设，并且作为该任务的模型也不充分，因为它无法提供卡片选择频率的定量预测。在本文中，对该模型进行了修订以对数据进行定量拟合。该模型可以基于选择倾向函数（STF）预测卡片的选择频率，或者相反，它能够从数据中估计主观概率。首先基于该模型对过去的实验数据进行重新分析。在实验1中，展示了修订模型的优越性。然而，当前提和结果之间的关系被迫偏离双条件形式时，该模型得不到支持。在实验2中，表明对概率信息的充分强调会影响参与者的表现。介绍了一种按概率策略对参与者进行分类的详细实验方法。在此，该模型得到了使用概率策略的参与者子群体的支持。最后，从适应性合理性的角度对结果进行了讨论。
