Kolar Cynthia S, Lodge David M
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA.
Science. 2002 Nov 8;298(5596):1233-6. doi: 10.1126/science.1075753.
Methods of risk assessment for alien species, especially for nonagricultural systems, are largely qualitative. Using a generalizable risk assessment approach and statistical models of fish introductions into the Great Lakes, North America, we developed a quantitative approach to target prevention efforts on species most likely to cause damage. Models correctly categorized established, quickly spreading, and nuisance fishes with 87 to 94% accuracy. We then identified fishes that pose a high risk to the Great Lakes if introduced from unintentional (ballast water) or intentional pathways (sport, pet, bait, and aquaculture industries).
外来物种风险评估方法，尤其是针对非农业系统的方法，大多是定性的。我们采用一种可推广的风险评估方法以及北美五大湖鱼类引入的统计模型，开发了一种定量方法，以便将预防工作的目标对准最有可能造成损害的物种。这些模型以87%至94%的准确率正确地对已定居、迅速扩散和造成滋扰的鱼类进行了分类。然后，我们确定了如果通过无意（压载水）或有意途径（体育、宠物、鱼饵和水产养殖行业）引入，会对五大湖构成高风险的鱼类。
