Norris Gregory A
Sylvania, North Berwick, ME 03906, USA.
Risk Anal. 2002 Oct;22(5):919-30. doi: 10.1111/1539-6924.00261.
Refinements of methods for life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) are directed at removing unjustified simplifications and quantifying and reducing uncertainties in results. The amount of uncertainty reduction that is actually achieved through LCIA method refinement depends on the structure of the life cycle inventory model. We investigate the general structure of inventory models using an economic input/output (I/O) life cycle assessment model of the U.S. economy. In particular, we study the results of applying a streamlining algorithm to the I/O LCA model. The streamlining algorithm retains only those "branches" of the process tree that are jointly required to account for a specified fraction of the total impacts upstream of each point in the tree. We examine the implications of these "tree pruning" results for site-informed LCIA. Percentiles are presented for U.S. commodities and several important pollutants, for the share of total upstream emissions contributed by the set of processes in each supply tier, that is, each set of processes that directly supply inputs to another set of processes Capturing at least 90% of the total direct plus upstream emissions for criteria air pollutants and toxic releases for at least 75% of the commodities in the U.S. economy requires full modeling of direct emissions plus the first five supply tiers. The requirements for capturing a high percentage (e.g., >80%) of total emissions vary widely across products or commodities. To capture more than 60% of total emissions for more than half of all commodities requires models with more than 4,000 process instances. To well characterize the total impacts of products, life cycle impact assessment methods must characterize foreground process impacts in a site-informed way and mean impacts of far-removed processes in an unbiased way.
生命周期影响评估(LCIA)方法的改进旨在消除不合理的简化,并量化和减少结果中的不确定性。通过LCIA方法改进实际实现的不确定性减少量取决于生命周期清单模型的结构。我们使用美国经济的经济投入产出(I/O)生命周期评估模型来研究清单模型的一般结构。特别是,我们研究了将简化算法应用于I/O LCA模型的结果。简化算法仅保留过程树中那些共同需要考虑树中每个点上游总影响的指定比例的“分支”。我们研究了这些“树修剪”结果对基于场地的LCIA的影响。给出了美国商品和几种重要污染物的百分位数,即每个供应层级(即直接为另一组过程提供输入的每组过程)中的过程集对上游总排放量的贡献份额。对于美国经济中至少75%的商品,要捕获至少90%的标准空气污染物直接排放加上游总排放量以及至少75%的有毒物质释放量,需要对直接排放加上前五个供应层级进行完整建模。捕获高比例(例如,>80%)总排放量的要求因产品或商品而异。要捕获超过一半商品的60%以上的总排放量,需要具有超过4000个过程实例的模型。为了很好地描述产品的总影响,生命周期影响评估方法必须以基于场地的方式描述前景过程的影响,并以无偏的方式描述远距离过程的平均影响。