Saenger E L, Kereiakes J G, Cavanaugh D J, Hall J L, Eiseman W
Radiology. 1976 Jan;118(1):123-8. doi: 10.1148/118.1.123.
Cystourethrography was used by the referring physician in 53 children with urinary tract disease. The benefits of this technique were evaluated using Bayesian methods. Prior and subsequent odds of the accuracy of the clinical diagnosis being affected by the radiological procedure were estimated. Marked benefits were found in 12 cases, which were used as the basis for the most conservative estimate of benefits. The genetic benefit-risk ratio is 140 for boys and 8.3 for girls. The somatic benefit-risk ratio is 10,000 for boys and 4,200 for girls.
转诊医生对53名患有泌尿系统疾病的儿童进行了膀胱尿道造影。采用贝叶斯方法评估了该技术的益处。估计了临床诊断准确性受放射学检查影响的先验概率和后验概率。在12例病例中发现了显著益处,这些病例被用作益处最保守估计的基础。男孩的遗传益处风险比为140,女孩为8.3。男孩的躯体益处风险比为10000,女孩为4200。