Olsen Jørn, Rachootin Pamela
The Danish Epidemiology Science Centre, University of Aarhus, Aarhus, Denmark.
Am J Epidemiol. 2003 Jan 15;157(2):94-7. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwf178.
A number of investigators have pointed to the possibility of a secular decline in human fecundity due to changes in sperm concentration. It is unlikely that any historical trends will be definitively quantified, but a good case can be made for more precise monitoring of this phenomenon in the future. Such monitoring would be justified on the grounds of the importance of early detection of environmental effects on the capacity of humans to reproduce. Establishing a surveillance system that will be sensitive enough to detect changes in fecundity over time is, however, a challenging enterprise because of methodological concerns. It may be impossible to obtain a quality of design that will pick up subtle changes in fecundity.
一些研究人员指出，由于精子浓度的变化，人类生育能力可能会出现长期下降。虽然不太可能明确量化任何历史趋势，但有充分理由在未来更精确地监测这一现象。基于早期发现环境对人类生殖能力影响的重要性，这种监测是合理的。然而，由于方法学上的问题，建立一个足够灵敏以检测生育能力随时间变化的监测系统是一项具有挑战性的工作。可能无法获得能够捕捉生育能力细微变化的设计质量。
