Graefe Deborah Roempke, Lichter Daniel T
Population Research Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, USA.
Perspect Sex Reprod Health. 2002 Nov-Dec;34(6):286-93.
Much of the debate over welfare reauthorization centers on whether marriage promotion should play a key role. Few studies, however, have tracked the marriage and divorce histories of unwed mothers, including minority women, who are often the main targets of welfare reform.
Data from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth were used to estimate the hazards of the transition to marriage for women who delayed childbearing until marriage and for teenagers and older women who had a nonmarital first birth, and of the transition to divorce among the ever-married. Life-table estimates calculated with these estimated transition hazards show the cumulative proportions married and divorced, by race and ethnicity, for women who had a nonmarital first birth and for those who did not. RESULTS Nonmarital childbearing reduces the likelihood of marriage. Some 82% of white women, 62% of Hispanics and 59% of blacks who had a nonmarital first birth had married by age 40; the corresponding proportions among those who avoided nonmarital childbearing were 89%, 93% and 76%, respectively. There is no evidence to suggest that the negative effect of nonmarital childbearing on marriage is caused by other observed or unobserved differences between unwed mothers and women who remain childless until marriage. Nonmarital childbearing raises the likelihood of divorce among unwed mothers who eventually marry, a finding that also varies by race and ethnicity.
Marriage promotion policies should focus on lowering rates of nonmarital childbearing. Reductions in nonmarital childbearing, however, may not eliminate long-standing discrepancies in marriage rates between black and white women.
关于福利政策重新授权的诸多争论集中在婚姻促进是否应发挥关键作用。然而，很少有研究追踪未婚母亲（包括少数族裔女性，她们往往是福利改革的主要目标对象）的结婚和离婚史。
利用1995年全国家庭成长调查的数据，估算了延迟生育直至结婚的女性、非婚生育的青少年及年龄较大女性步入婚姻的风险，以及已婚女性的离婚风险。根据这些估算的转变风险计算出的生命表估计值，显示了非婚生育女性和未非婚生育女性按种族和族裔划分的结婚和离婚累积比例。
非婚生育会降低结婚的可能性。首次非婚生育的白人女性中，约82%在40岁前结婚；西班牙裔女性为62%；黑人女性为59%。而避免非婚生育的女性中，相应比例分别为89%、93%和76%。没有证据表明非婚生育对婚姻的负面影响是由未婚母亲与直至结婚仍未生育的女性之间其他已观察到或未观察到的差异所致。非婚生育会增加最终结婚的未婚母亲的离婚可能性，这一结果也因种族和族裔而异。
婚姻促进政策应着重降低非婚生育比例。然而，非婚生育比例的降低可能无法消除黑人和白人女性在结婚率方面长期存在的差异。
