Aassve Arnstein
Department of Economics, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, United Kingdom.
Demography. 2003 Feb;40(1):105-26. doi: 10.1353/dem.2003.0001.
This paper extends previous work on premarital childbearing by modeling both the entry rates and the exit rates of unwed motherhood among young American women. In particular, I investigate the impact of economic resources on the likelihood of experiencing a premarital birth and then of subsequent marriage. Using a multiple-destination, multiple-spell hazard regression model and a microsimulation analysis, I analyze the accumulating effects of various economic variables. The results show that the economic resources are indeed important both for premarital childbearing and for subsequent marriage. However, the simulations show that large changes in these economic variables do not necessarily translate into large changes in nonmarital childbearing.
本文通过对美国年轻女性非婚生育的进入率和退出率进行建模，扩展了先前关于婚前生育的研究。具体而言，我研究了经济资源对经历婚前生育以及随后结婚可能性的影响。使用多目的地、多阶段风险回归模型和微观模拟分析，我分析了各种经济变量的累积效应。结果表明，经济资源对于婚前生育和随后的婚姻确实都很重要。然而，模拟结果显示，这些经济变量的大幅变化并不一定会转化为非婚生育的大幅变化。
