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[1975年至2001年间匈牙利癌症死亡率的变化情况]

[The course of cancer mortality in Hungary between 1975 and 2001].

作者信息

Gaudi István, Kásler Miklós

机构信息

MTA Számítástechnikai és Automatizálási Kutató Intézete, Budapest.

出版信息

Magy Onkol. 2002;46(4):291-5. Epub 2003 Feb 1.

Abstract

The course of cancer mortality in this country between 1975 and 2001 was analysed solely with mathematical methods using the mortality data provided by the Central Statistical Office. Mortality data were studied according to patient s sex and tumour localisation and in relation to total cancer mortality. The increase and decrease in cancer mortality were found to differ by sex and tumour localisation: e.g. death rate caused by cancers of the oral cavity showed low deviation with an even increase just like the mortality caused by colorectal cancer, the latter, however, was steeper with men. In case of melanoma higher deviation was associated with increased mortality, again at a higher rate with men. Dying of testicular cancer and of gastric cancer in either sex showed decreasing tendencies. Lung cancer mortality assumed different patterns in the two genders: with men it kept increasing at an even pace until 1994 then the increase stopped. With women, however, the increase since 1985 was steeper than earlier. The breast cancer mortality rates can also be divided into two periods. There was an even rise until 1994 followed by stagnation. As to the total cancer mortality values, the authors state that the rhythm of increase during the first 20 years of the study period had changed, the steepness of trends in the last seven years can be expressed in a small positive number not differing from zero at significant level which means that the increase in cancer mortality has stopped.

摘要

利用中央统计局提供的死亡率数据,仅通过数学方法分析了该国1975年至2001年期间的癌症死亡率变化过程。根据患者性别、肿瘤部位以及与总癌症死亡率的关系对死亡率数据进行了研究。结果发现,癌症死亡率的上升和下降因性别和肿瘤部位而异:例如,口腔癌导致的死亡率偏差较小,呈平稳上升趋势,结直肠癌导致的死亡率也是如此,不过后者在男性中上升幅度更大。黑色素瘤方面,较高的偏差与死亡率上升相关,同样在男性中上升幅度更大。无论男女,睾丸癌和胃癌的死亡率均呈下降趋势。肺癌死亡率在两性中呈现不同模式:男性肺癌死亡率在1994年之前一直平稳上升,之后停止上升。然而,女性肺癌死亡率自1985年以来的上升幅度比之前更大。乳腺癌死亡率也可分为两个阶段。1994年之前呈平稳上升,之后趋于平稳。关于总癌症死亡率数值,作者指出,研究期前20年的上升节奏发生了变化,过去七年趋势的陡峭程度可用一个小的正数表示,在显著水平上与零无差异,这意味着癌症死亡率的上升已经停止。

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