Lord C C, Day J F
Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, University of Florida-Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, Vero Beach, FL 32962, USA.
Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2001 Winter;1(4):299-315. doi: 10.1089/15303660160025921.
Two simulation models were used to investigate the epidemiology of St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEv) in south Florida, one including sentinel hosts (chickens) and amplification hosts (wild birds), while the other one included age structure in the amplification host population. The overall population size of the vector, Culex nigripalpus, was a major factor in the likelihood of epizootics for both models, but the seasonal dynamics of the vector alone did not explain variation in transmission. Interactions between seasonal factors in the mosquito and reproduction in the wild amplification avian hosts appeared to be important in the likelihood of epizootics. Biased feeding between sentinel and amplification hosts affected the time course of virus prevalence and may have implications for the interpretation of sentinel data. The time of virus introduction strongly affected the timing of outbreaks but did not affect the likelihood of epizootics. In most cases, the outbreak occurred immediately after virus introduction; however, in some cases the outbreak was delayed until the mosquito population increased. This has implications for the timing of control strategies directed against mosquito populations.
使用两个模拟模型研究了南佛罗里达州圣路易斯脑炎病毒（SLEv）的流行病学，一个模型包括哨兵宿主（鸡）和扩增宿主（野生鸟类），另一个模型则考虑了扩增宿主种群的年龄结构。媒介库蚊的总体数量是两个模型中发生动物流行病可能性的主要因素，但仅媒介的季节动态并不能解释传播的变化。蚊子的季节因素与野生扩增禽类宿主繁殖之间的相互作用似乎对动物流行病的可能性很重要。哨兵宿主和扩增宿主之间的偏向性取食影响了病毒流行的时间进程，可能对哨兵数据的解释有影响。病毒引入的时间强烈影响疫情爆发的时间，但不影响动物流行病的可能性。在大多数情况下，病毒引入后疫情立即爆发；然而，在某些情况下，疫情会延迟到蚊群数量增加时才爆发。这对针对蚊群的控制策略的时机有影响。
