A general model for the propagation of uncertainty in measurements into heat transfer simulations and its application to cryosurgery.

This report presents a technique for estimating the propagation of uncertainty in measurements into mathematical simulations of heat transfer. The motivation for this report is to show the dramatic uncertainty associated with estimating the value of the so-called "lethal temperature," even in a case where a perfect correlation appears to exist between histo-pathologic observations and a corresponding heat transfer simulation. Although the example presented in this report relates to cryosurgery, the technique proposed in this report is rather general and can be applied to any heat transfer problem. The uncertainty analysis presented in this report can be considered as an extension of the well-known concept of the rule of the square root of the sum of the square errors. A comparison of the new technique with the worst case scenario concept is also presented. In conclusion, it is recommended that the proposed technique be routinely applied when presenting simulated results, whether as a part of a theoretical study, or in comparison with experimental data.