Rabin Yoed
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA.
Cryobiology. 2003 Apr;46(2):109-20. doi: 10.1016/s0011-2240(03)00015-4.
This report presents a technique for estimating the propagation of uncertainty in measurements into mathematical simulations of heat transfer. The motivation for this report is to show the dramatic uncertainty associated with estimating the value of the so-called "lethal temperature," even in a case where a perfect correlation appears to exist between histo-pathologic observations and a corresponding heat transfer simulation. Although the example presented in this report relates to cryosurgery, the technique proposed in this report is rather general and can be applied to any heat transfer problem. The uncertainty analysis presented in this report can be considered as an extension of the well-known concept of the rule of the square root of the sum of the square errors. A comparison of the new technique with the worst case scenario concept is also presented. In conclusion, it is recommended that the proposed technique be routinely applied when presenting simulated results, whether as a part of a theoretical study, or in comparison with experimental data.
本报告介绍了一种将测量中的不确定性传播估计到传热数学模拟中的技术。撰写本报告的目的是表明，即使在组织病理学观察与相应的传热模拟之间似乎存在完美相关性的情况下，估计所谓“致死温度”的值仍存在巨大的不确定性。尽管本报告中的示例与冷冻手术有关，但本报告提出的技术相当通用，可应用于任何传热问题。本报告中提出的不确定性分析可被视为著名的平方误差总和平方根规则概念的扩展。还将新技术与最坏情况场景概念进行了比较。总之，建议在展示模拟结果时常规应用所提出的技术，无论是作为理论研究的一部分，还是与实验数据进行比较。
