Suwanwongse Sirilak, Chasreechai Saowaluk, Lenbury Yongwimon, Kataunyuthita Supat
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.
Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health. 2002 Sep;33(3):581-8.
AIDS is a serious public health problem. Our projections of the likely incidence of AIDS are of vital importance to the assessment of future healthcare needs. This paper considers an epidemic model of the population dynamics of AIDS, which has been adjusted to take into account the changes in the transmission rate in response to changes in risk behaviors and increased AIDS awareness due to public health policy, AIDS campaigns, and other means of disease prevention. The model, adjusted for reporting delays and for the variable incubation period of the disease, has been applied to AIDS incidence data gathered in Nakhon Pathom, Thailand. Using the least-squares criterion, we solved for the appropriate values of the parameters which gave the best fit of the model to the observation data. The model was found to be capable of generating short-term projections, and offers an explanation for the decline in the number of cases that is evident in more recent data.
艾滋病是一个严重的公共卫生问题。我们对艾滋病可能发病率的预测对于评估未来的医疗保健需求至关重要。本文考虑了一个艾滋病人群动态的流行病模型，该模型已进行调整，以考虑到风险行为变化导致的传播率变化，以及由于公共卫生政策、艾滋病宣传活动和其他疾病预防手段而提高的艾滋病意识。该模型针对报告延迟和疾病的可变潜伏期进行了调整，并已应用于泰国佛统府收集的艾滋病发病率数据。使用最小二乘法准则，我们求解了使模型与观测数据最佳拟合的参数的适当值。结果发现该模型能够生成短期预测，并为近期数据中明显的病例数下降提供了解释。
