Beuhler M
International Water Association Scientific and Technical Committee, Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, 700 North Alameda Street, Los Angeles, CA 90012, USA.
Water Sci Technol. 2003;47(7-8):165-8.
Global warming will have a significant impact on water resources within the 20 to 90-year planning period of many water projects. Arid and semi-arid regions such as Southern California are especially vulnerable to anticipated negative impacts of global warming on water resources. Long-range water facility planning must consider global climate change in the recommended mix of new facilities needed to meet future water requirements. The generally accepted impacts of global warming include temperature, rising sea levels, more frequent and severe floods and droughts, and a shift from snowfall to rain. Precipitation changes are more difficult to predict. For Southern California, these impacts will be especially severe on surface water supplies. Additionally, rising sea levels will exacerbate salt-water intrusion into freshwater and impact the quality of surface water supplies. Integrated water resources planning is emerging as a tool to develop water supplies and demand management strategies that are less vulnerable to the impacts of global warming. These tools include water conservation, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and desalination of brackish water and possibly seawater. Additionally, planning for future water needs should include explicit consideration of the potential range of global warming impacts through techniques such as scenario planning.
在许多水利工程20至90年的规划期内，全球变暖将对水资源产生重大影响。像南加州这样的干旱和半干旱地区尤其容易受到全球变暖对水资源预期负面影响的影响。长期水利设施规划必须在满足未来用水需求所需的新设施推荐组合中考虑全球气候变化。全球变暖普遍公认的影响包括气温升高、海平面上升、更频繁和严重的洪水与干旱，以及从降雪向降雨的转变。降水量变化更难预测。对南加州而言，这些影响对地表水供应的影响将尤为严重。此外，海平面上升将加剧海水对淡水的入侵，并影响地表水供应的质量。综合水资源规划正在成为一种工具，用于制定对全球变暖影响不太敏感的供水和需求管理策略。这些工具包括节水、地表水与地下水的联合使用以及微咸水乃至海水的淡化。此外，未来用水需求规划应通过情景规划等技术明确考虑全球变暖影响的潜在范围。
