Cox D R, Isham V S, Northrop P J
Nuffield College, University of Oxford, New Road, Oxford OX1 1NF, UK.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2002 Jul 15;360(1796):1389-408. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2002.1006.
Some of the many statistical aspects of floods are discussed and some new results are given on a number of features. The probability theory of extreme values is briefly reviewed and its potential for applications outlined. The peaks-over-threshold method of estimation is compared with the direct use of annual maxima and some theoretical comparisons of efficiency are given. The effect of trend on the distribution of maxima is analysed in terms of a simple theoretical model distinguishing the effects of trend in mean level and of trend in dispersion. An empirical Bayes method for pooling information from a number of sources is described and illustrated, and related to the procedures recommended in the Flood estimation handbook. In the final section, a range of further issues is outlined.
本文讨论了洪水众多统计方面的一些内容，并给出了一些关于若干特征的新结果。简要回顾了极值概率理论，并概述了其应用潜力。将超阈值峰值估计方法与直接使用年最大值进行了比较，并给出了一些效率的理论比较。根据一个区分均值水平趋势和离散趋势影响的简单理论模型，分析了趋势对最大值分布的影响。描述并举例说明了一种用于汇集多个来源信息的经验贝叶斯方法，并将其与《洪水估计手册》中推荐的程序相关联。在最后一节中，概述了一系列进一步的问题。
