Hunt J C R
Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, Department of Space and Climate Physics, Pearson Building, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2002 Jul 15;360(1796):1531-43. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2002.1016.
This paper begins with an analysis of flooding as a natural disaster for which the solutions to the environmental, social and economic problems are essentially those of identifying and overcoming hazards and vulnerability, reducing risk and damaging consequences. Long-term solutions to flooding problems, especially in a changing climate, should be sought in the wider context of developing more sustainable social organization, economics and technology. Then, developments are described of how scientific understanding, supported by practical modelling, is leading to predictions of how human-induced changes to climatic and geological conditions are likely to influence flooding over at least the next 300 years, through their influences on evaporation, precipitation, run-off, wind storm and sea-level rise. Some of the outstanding scientific questions raised by these problems are highlighted, such as the statistical and deterministic prediction of extreme events, the understanding and modelling of mechanisms that operate on varying length- and time-scales, and the complex interactions between biological, ecological and physical problems. Some options for reducing the impact of flooding by new technology include both improved prediction and monitoring with computer models, and remote sensing, flexible and focused warning systems, and permanent and temporary flood-reduction systems.
本文首先分析了洪水这一自然灾害，针对其环境、社会和经济问题的解决办法本质上是识别和克服危险与脆弱性、降低风险及破坏性后果。对于洪水问题的长期解决方案，尤其是在气候变化的背景下，应在发展更具可持续性的社会组织、经济和技术这一更广泛的背景中去探寻。接着，阐述了在实际模型的支持下，科学认识如何通过对蒸发、降水、径流、风暴和海平面上升的影响，预测至少在未来300年内人类引起的气候和地质条件变化可能如何影响洪水。还强调了这些问题引发的一些突出科学问题，比如极端事件的统计和确定性预测、对在不同长度和时间尺度上运行的机制的理解和建模，以及生物、生态和物理问题之间的复杂相互作用。通过新技术减少洪水影响的一些选项包括利用计算机模型以及遥感技术改进预测和监测、灵活且有针对性的预警系统，以及永久性和临时性的防洪系统。
