Robson Alice J
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2002 Jul 15;360(1796):1327-43. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2002.1003.
Recent major flooding in the UK has raised concern that climate change is causing increases in flood frequency and flood magnitude. This paper considers whether UK flood data provide evidence of increasing trends in fluvial floods. The analysis examines both local and national flood series and investigates the effect of climate variability on trend detection. The results suggest that there have been trends towards more protracted high flows over the last 30-50 years, but that this could be accounted for as part of climatic variation rather than climate change. There is no statistical evidence of a long-term trend in flooding over the last 80-120 years. Thus, although climate change could be influencing floods, direct analysis of flood records does not yet provide proof.
近期英国发生的重大洪水引发了人们对气候变化导致洪水频率和洪水量增加的担忧。本文探讨英国的洪水数据是否能证明河流洪水呈上升趋势。该分析考察了地方和全国的洪水序列，并研究了气候变率对趋势检测的影响。结果表明，在过去30至50年里，出现了高流量持续时间更长的趋势，但这可能是气候变化的一部分，而非气候变化所致。在过去80至120年里，没有统计证据表明洪水存在长期趋势。因此，尽管气候变化可能正在影响洪水，但对洪水记录的直接分析尚未提供证据。
