Fellman Johan, Eriksson Aldur W
Folkhälsan Institute of Genetics, Population Genetics Unit, Helsinki, Finland.
Twin Res. 2003 Jun;6(3):183-91. doi: 10.1375/136905203765693834.
When twinning rates are studied, maternal age and parity should be considered. Data on parity are seldom available. We studied information about the mean parity, using the gross reproduction rate, the total fertility rate and the crude birth rate. These are strongly correlated with the mean parity. The crude birth rate is more readily available than the gross reproduction rate or the total fertility rate. Earlier studies have shown that it is difficult to model variations in the twinning rate with data for the macrolevel. In this study these findings are explained by theoretical analyses and illustrated by empirical data. Sweden, having the oldest continuous population statistics and high twinning rates, offers excellent possibilities for analyses of the twinning rate. We considered data for the counties of Gotland, Alvsborg and Stockholm and the city of Stockholm from 1749 to 1960 and for Sweden until 1996. For Alvsborg, the twinning rate was low for the whole period, showing no statistically significant decreasing trend. It is mainly about 11-14 per thousand, which is only 50-60% of the twinning rate in Gotland in the 18th century. In Gotland, in the county of Stockholm, in the city of Stockholm and in Sweden as a whole, the decreasing trends in the twinning rate were statistically significant. The decreasing twinning rates converge towards the low twinning rate of Alvsborg. After standardization of the twinning rate, the differences remained and the low rate in Alvsborg could not be explained by maternal age.
