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依从性的置信度:参数法与非参数法

Confidence of compliance: parametric versus nonparametric approaches.

作者信息

McBride Graham B

机构信息

National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, PO Box 11-115, Hamilton, New Zealand.

出版信息

Water Res. 2003 Sep;37(15):3666-71. doi: 10.1016/S0043-1354(03)00272-0.

Abstract

Previous classical and Bayesian formulations of compliance assessment rules based on a nonparametric approach are compared with formulations based on the assumption that compliance assessment data have been randomly drawn from a normal population with unknown mean and variance. Graphs of parametric (Bayesian) "Confidence of Compliance" curves are presented. With one exception it is concluded that compliance rules based on a nonparametric approach are the more robust, as their formulation does not depend on any assumption as to the nature of the parent distribution and because rules devised under either approach are generally similar. The exception occurs for rules based on minimizing the consumer's risk (i.e., environment's risk) when a large number of samples are to hand and goodness-of-fit tests give strong grounds for the assumption of a normal parent. In that case the parametric compliance rule--either Bayesian or classical--becomes rather less strict.

摘要

基于非参数方法的先前经典和贝叶斯合规性评估规则公式,与基于合规性评估数据是从均值和方差未知的正态总体中随机抽取这一假设的公式进行了比较。给出了参数(贝叶斯)“合规置信度”曲线的图表。除了一个例外情况,得出的结论是,基于非参数方法的合规规则更为稳健,因为其公式不依赖于关于总体分布性质的任何假设,并且因为在这两种方法下设计的规则通常是相似的。当有大量样本可用且拟合优度检验为正态总体假设提供有力依据时,基于最小化消费者风险(即环境风险)的规则会出现例外情况。在这种情况下,参数合规规则——无论是贝叶斯的还是经典的——都会变得不那么严格。

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