Haukenes G, Shao J, Mhalu F, Nome S, Sam N E
Department of Microbiology, Gade Institute, University of Bergen, Norway.
Scand J Infect Dis. 1992;24(6):701-6. doi: 10.3109/00365549209062454.
The prevalence of antibodies to HIV in population groups in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania has been monitored from late 1984 through 1991. In the pregnant women and blood donors the doubling time was about 2 years. If, however, the doubling time is calculated from reported cases of AIDS of the whole country, an average doubling time of 10 months is obtained. We point out factors that may bias calculations of the rate of spread of the virus and thus give rise to erroneous projections for the nearest years, especially the so-called transient effect. It is recommended that serosurveys of representative population groups are carried out at regular intervals.
从1984年末到1991年，坦桑尼亚达累斯萨拉姆人群中艾滋病毒抗体的流行情况受到了监测。在孕妇和献血者中，翻倍时间约为2年。然而，如果从该国报告的艾滋病病例来计算翻倍时间，则得出的平均翻倍时间为10个月。我们指出了可能使病毒传播速率计算产生偏差从而导致对最近几年的预测出现错误的因素，尤其是所谓的短暂效应。建议定期对具有代表性的人群进行血清学调查。
