Exposures to diesel exhaust in the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, 1950-1990.

A prior case-control study found a positive, monotonic exposure-response relationship between exposure to diesel exhaust and lung cancer among decedents of the Central States Conference of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters. In response to critiques of the Teamsters' exposure estimates by the Health Effects Institute's Diesel Epidemiology Panel, historical exposures and associated uncertainties are investigated here. Historic diesel exhaust exposures are predicted as a function of heavy-duty diesel truck emissions, increasing use of diesel engines, and occupational elemental carbon (EC) measurements taken during the late 1980s and early 1990s. EC from diesel and nondiesel sources is distinguished in light of recent studies indicating a substantial contribution of gasoline vehicles to ambient EC. Monte Carlo sampling is used to characterize exposure distributions. The methodology used in this article-a probabilistic model for historical exposure assessment-is novel.