Cunningham James K, Liu Lon-Mu
Public Statistics Institute, Irvine, CA 92612, USA.
Addiction. 2003 Sep;98(9):1229-37. doi: 10.1046/j.1360-0443.2003.00450.x.
To determine whether the federal regulation of ephedrine and pseudoephedrine, precursors used in illicit methamphetamine production, reduced methamphetamine-related acute care hospital admissions.
ARIMA-intervention time-series analysis.
California (1983-2000), Arizona and Nevada (1991-2000), USA.
Monthly counts of methamphetamine-related acute care hospital admissions.
Bulk powder ephedrine and pseudoephedrine: regulated November 1989. Products containing ephedrine as the single active medicinal ingredient: regulated August 1995. Products containing pseudoephedrine: regulated October 1997. Large-scale producers used ephedrine and pseudoephedrine in these forms. Ephedrine combined with other active medicinal ingredients (e.g. various cold medicines), used mainly by small-scale producers: regulated October 1996.
In California, the bulk powder regulation stopped a 7-year rise in admissions (1983-89) and reduced them by 35% (P < 0.01). The single ingredient ephedrine regulation stopped a 4-year rise (1992-95) in California, Arizona and Nevada, with 48% (P < 0.01), 71% (P < 0.01) and 52% (P < 0.01) reductions, respectively. The pseudoephedrine products regulation stopped a 2-year rise (1996-97) in California, Arizona and Nevada, with 38% (P < 0.01), 41% (P < 0.05) and 61% (P < 0.01) reductions, respectively. Admissions rose at the end of the study period but were still well below peak 1990s levels. The regulation of ephedrine combined with other active medicinal ingredients had no significant impact in any of the three states.
Regulations targeting precursors used by large-scale producers reduced admissions substantially during the study period. However, the regulation of precursors used primarily by small-scale producers had little, if any, effect.
确定联邦政府对用于非法制造甲基苯丙胺的麻黄碱和伪麻黄碱的管制是否减少了与甲基苯丙胺相关的急性护理医院入院人数。
自回归积分滑动平均干预时间序列分析。
美国加利福尼亚州（1983 - 2000年）、亚利桑那州和内华达州（1991 - 2000年）。
与甲基苯丙胺相关的急性护理医院入院月度计数。
散装麻黄碱和伪麻黄碱：1989年11月开始管制。以麻黄碱为单一活性药用成分的产品：1995年8月开始管制。含伪麻黄碱的产品：1997年10月开始管制。大规模生产商使用这些形式的麻黄碱和伪麻黄碱。麻黄碱与其他活性药用成分混合（如各种感冒药），主要由小规模生产商使用：1996年10月开始管制。
在加利福尼亚州，对散装麻黄碱的管制阻止了入院人数长达7年的上升（1983 - 1989年），并使其减少了35%（P < 0.01）。对单一成分麻黄碱的管制阻止了加利福尼亚州、亚利桑那州和内华达州分别长达4年的上升（1992 - 1995年），降幅分别为48%（P < 0.01）、71%（P < 0.01）和52%（P < 0.01）。对含伪麻黄碱产品的管制阻止了加利福尼亚州、亚利桑那州和内华达州分别长达2年的上升（1996 - 1997年），降幅分别为38%（P < 0.01）、41%（P < 0.05）和61%（P < 0.01）。在研究期末入院人数有所上升，但仍远低于20世纪90年代的峰值水平。对麻黄碱与其他活性药用成分混合制剂的管制在这三个州均未产生显著影响。
针对大规模生产商使用的前体的管制在研究期间大幅减少了入院人数。然而，对主要由小规模生产商使用的前体的管制几乎没有效果，即便有效果也微乎其微。
