Bär Walter
Institute of Legal Medicine, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057 Zürich, Switzerland.
Leg Med (Tokyo). 2003 Mar;5 Suppl 1:S41-4. doi: 10.1016/s1344-6223(02)00087-1.
The evaluation of the evidentiary value of scientific evidence is the assessment of the strength of the link between a finding and a person. It is usually a statistical assessment but its presentation is full of pitfalls. The evaluation of scientific evidence must be based on a established methodology to both evaluate, expose and interpret the evidence. It is best based on a logical framework, e.g. the Bayesian theorem, and on likelihood ratios. The information of the scientist is usually a numerical one, e.g. the probability of observing two matching profiles. Assessments of simple stains as well as of stain mixtures with contributors of different ethnic origin and/or with related contributors or reference persons and even artifacts can be quantified and expressed by likelihood ratio(s). Thereby, scientific evidence can be integrated by juries into the continuous process of evaluating prior odds and changing them into posterior odds by new information in the case.
科学证据的证据价值评估是对一项发现与一个人之间关联强度的评估。这通常是一种统计评估，但其呈现方式充满陷阱。科学证据的评估必须基于既定的方法来评估、揭示和解释证据。最好基于一个逻辑框架，例如贝叶斯定理和似然比。科学家提供的信息通常是数值性的，例如观察到两个匹配图谱的概率。对于简单污渍以及具有不同种族来源的贡献者和/或相关贡献者或参考人员甚至伪迹的污渍混合物的评估，可以通过似然比进行量化和表达。由此，陪审团可以将科学证据纳入评估先验概率并通过案件中的新信息将其转换为后验概率的连续过程中。
