Chard T, Learmont J, Carroll S, Hudson C, Lloyd D S, Sloan D
City and Hackney District Health Authority, Homerton Hospital, London, UK.
Am J Perinatol. 1992 Sep-Nov;9(5-6):388-93. doi: 10.1055/s-2007-999272.
A population of 2029 pregnant women (929 primiparas; 1100 multiparas) has been used to examine aspects of the calculation of obstetric risk scores from the presence of individual risk factors. The findings have been related to fetal outcome in these pregnancies and the following conclusions were reached: (1) the use of Bayes theorem for the calculation of a risk score is superior to the simple addition of weighted risk factors; (2) the diagnostic efficiency of a risk score is somewhat reduced when the data base used for calculation of the score is derived from a population different from that of the current pregnancy; (3) there is almost total overlap of risk scores in women with satisfactory and unsatisfactory fetal outcome. It is concluded that risk scores can be used to identify a small group of women at particularly high risk; in the remainder of the population scores are unhelpful except perhaps to indicate the women who do not require an intensive program of antenatal care.
2029名孕妇（929名初产妇；1100名经产妇）参与了此次研究，旨在探讨基于个体风险因素计算产科风险评分的相关问题。研究结果与这些孕妇的胎儿结局相关，并得出以下结论：（1）使用贝叶斯定理计算风险评分优于简单相加加权风险因素；（2）当用于计算评分的数据库来自与当前妊娠不同的人群时，风险评分的诊断效率会有所降低；（3）胎儿结局良好和不良的女性风险评分几乎完全重叠。研究得出结论，风险评分可用于识别一小部分风险特别高的女性；在其余人群中，评分可能无助于表明哪些女性不需要强化的产前护理计划。
