Shennan Ian, Coulthard Tom, Flather Roger, Horton Ben, Macklin Mark, Rees John, Wright Matt
Environmental Research Centre, Department of Geography, University of Durham, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK.
Sci Total Environ. 2003 Oct 1;314-316:737-54. doi: 10.1016/s0048-9697(03)00081-0.
Three modelling elements and sedimentary evidence provide an understanding of sediment characteristics, river basin processes, tidal regimes and sea-level changes to explain sediment supply to the Humber Estuary through the Holocene (the last 10,000 years). An upscaled cellular catchment model simulates water and sediment fluxes from river basins, illustrating significant variations in response to climate change, especially precipitation and vegetation changes, principally deforestation. Much of the sediment mobilised remains in stores within the catchment and only a small fraction reaches the Humber tidal system. An empirical model helps to explain sediment erosion, transport and deposition from the offshore and coastal zones through the Holocene and sea-level rise caused the transgression of the continental shelf of the North Sea. Comparison with the sediment fill of the lowlands around of the Humber estuary, that represent the extent of the estuary during the Holocene, demonstrates that most of the fill (approximately 95-98%) was derived from non-fluvial sources. A shelf evolution model, with reconstructions of sea level, palaeogeography and palaeobathymetry for 1,000 year time steps through the Holocene predicts significant changes in tidal regimes, first over wide areas of the coast as the transgression of the continental shelf progresses. The most significant changes occur with the inner reaches of the palaeo-estuaries, especially those of the Humber and the Fenland. Throughout the mid-Holocene they are characterised by significantly lower tidal ranges (MWHST approximately 2.5 m less than present) and low tidal currents. The simulated patterns of tidal currents concur with the transport of fine grain sediment from the coastal zone into the estuaries. The major tidal range changes revise estimates of late Holocene and ongoing relative sea and land level changes.
三种建模要素和沉积证据有助于理解沉积物特征、流域过程、潮汐状况和海平面变化，从而解释全新世（过去一万年）期间亨伯河口的沉积物供应情况。一个放大的网格状流域模型模拟了来自流域的水和沉积物通量，说明了对气候变化（尤其是降水和植被变化，主要是森林砍伐）的显著响应变化。大部分被搬运的沉积物滞留在流域内，只有一小部分到达亨伯潮汐系统。一个经验模型有助于解释全新世期间近海和沿海区域的沉积物侵蚀、搬运和沉积，海平面上升导致了北海大陆架的海侵。与代表全新世期间河口范围的亨伯河口周围低地的沉积物填充情况进行比较，结果表明大部分填充物（约95 - 98%）来自非河流来源。一个陆架演化模型，通过全新世每1000年时间步长的海平面、古地理和古水深重建，预测潮汐状况会发生显著变化，首先是随着大陆架海侵的推进，在广阔的海岸区域出现变化。最显著的变化发生在古河口的上游河段，尤其是亨伯河和芬地湾的河口。在整个全新世中期，它们的特点是潮汐范围显著较低（平均大潮高潮位比现在低约2.5米）且潮流较弱。模拟的潮流模式与细颗粒沉积物从沿海区域向河口的输送情况相符。主要的潮汐范围变化修正了对全新世晚期及当前相对海平面和陆地水平变化的估计。
