Bi Peng, Tong Shilu, Donald Ken, Parton Kevin A, Ni Jinfa
Department of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia.
Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2003 Fall;3(3):111-5. doi: 10.1089/153036603768395807.
A time-series analysis was conducted to study the impact of climate variability on the transmission of Japanese encephalitis in eastern China. Correlation and regression analyses were used to examine the relationship between monthly climatic variables and monthly incidence of Japanese encephalitis in Jieshou County, China over the period 1980-96. Spearman's correlation analysis showed that maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall were all associated with the transmission of Japanese encephalitis in the county. Regression analysis suggested that monthly mean minimum temperature and monthly precipitation had a significant relationship with the transmission of Japanese encephalitis, with a 1-month lag effect. The results indicated that these climatic variables might be treated as possible predictors for regions with similar geographic, climatic, and socio-economic conditions to Jieshou County.
进行了一项时间序列分析，以研究气候变异性对中国东部地区日本脑炎传播的影响。使用相关性和回归分析来检验1980 - 1996年期间中国界首县每月气候变量与日本脑炎月发病率之间的关系。Spearman相关性分析表明，最高和最低温度以及降雨量均与该县日本脑炎的传播相关。回归分析表明，月平均最低温度和月降水量与日本脑炎的传播存在显著关系，且具有1个月的滞后效应。结果表明，对于与界首县具有相似地理、气候和社会经济条件的地区，这些气候变量可被视为可能的预测指标。
